Calm DOW: 2 Reasons To Ease Fear Of A “Black Monday”

Say it with me: “THIS IS NOT ANOTHER 2008 CRASH”. It is not even close. Natural bear markets are simply not the same as fundamentally and functionally flawed market practices that landed the World Economy in the worst crisis since the Great Depression. Lost Ya? Fine. Maybe Apple CEO Tim Cook, and Donald Trump can help (yea, comin in EARLY with the Donald mention this week – we know you missed it). Here’s a quick 1-2 punch at your unfounded fears of a “Black Monday” (big shout out to Chuck D, and Flavor Flav of course)

  1. Understand CHINESE Economics:
    china econ infograph benandsiyablog

America is currently the largest economy by far nominally (about $18 Trillion to #2 China’s $11).  But, that won’t be true for long. With China’s population sitting around 4 times the size of America’s (1.3 BILLION PEOPLE) and a middle class around the size of ALL  AMERICANS. Put simply, that’s about 350 Million people with more than enough money to survive and buy Nike shoes, and iPhones.  The more of these that are bought by this Chinese middle class, the more stock speculation money investors who bet on that happening worldwide get to cash in on. While, last week we found out that China isn’t growing as fast as your 401K and retirement fund managers might like – this isn’t the end of the world.  As more and more Chinese people move out of poverty into the middle class, China will become the world’s undisputed economic champion – at least for a while. This is inevitable. Managing the road there has proved a challenge for the centrally controlled mixed markets in Beijing, but we’ll get there sometime mid-century one way or another. So, when your favorite Presidential candidate says:

He maybe right about the planning part, but unless he’s gettin ready to quadriple America’s population and spending dollar real quick (watch out, ladies 😉 ), there’s nothing any coming President can do about this rising tide from the east – and really why would you want to?

SO BASICALLY: All speculation is not equal worldwide. China is figuring out how to act with new money. Give it some time, and stop betting on that economy to perform like America’s matured markets… (in bed)  

2. Slippery OIL Prices:
oil price raised benandsiyablog

As China grows and slows (together with all other BRICS countries), they almost form the wake on which the next best markets surf on. So when that Boat slows down, the wake breaks, and fun times come to ugly splashes from all those dependent on sustainable (and more importantly STABLE) Chinese economic growth. Where there is growth, manufacturing plants need to be built and property needs to be bought to house them. That’s usually a result of more things needing to be made in the manufacturing sector for a population that has more income to buy more cars, iPhones, and chocolate, for instance.

Seeing as today’s main source of fuel for continued growth and keeping the economic engine greasy on that is oil, its easy to see how that drives presumed supply and demand. Oil “supply and demand”, however, is based on speculation… speculation that China would continue to grow and need more oil at some arbitrarily expected pace.  This means OPEC (oil monopoly) keeps up the million barrels a day rate of supply, while the real world only needs half that. When that China growth slows down, and they DON’T need as much oil as speculated – market oil prices reflect the lessening demand by pummeling the barrel price below $40.

SO BASICALLY: As the saying goes, “follow the money”. Nothing follows market monies as consistently as oil  and other commodity prices.  Far too often, oil prices follow the fast money (market speculation) so closely that they’ll happily walk into a wall with it, causing even more volatility. We’re producing more of something we don’t need more off. Good for your car fill up price, bad for your retirement plan.
This is a comment on how oil markets work, not on how well your GE, IBM, or Apple is doing. In fact, here’s part of an e-mail from Apple CEO Tim Cook sent to Finance jester, Jim Cramer just this morning:

I continue to believe that China represents an unprecedented opportunity over the long term as LTE penetration is very low and most importantly the growth of the middle class over the next several years will be huge

There you have it! Having a cold, or even a week of pneumonia or mono is not a death sentence. It is manageable. You’ll be fine.
I talked to texted a few investor friends on trading floors across the country watching that fateful “DOW” that was trending twice on twitter this morning, and opened at a negative -1,000 points, and they all agree that after a 6-year bull-run (constant growth), a correction of real stock asset prices was inevitable. Instead of 4-5 million iPhones or Nike Sneakers, China will buy closer to 3 million. CALM DOW! #NoTypo

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